Glacial and snow melt is essential for the well being of all the states of Central Asia and provides over 90% of their water requirements. Unfortunately, climate change is causing rapid recession of the glaciers, which in the short-term helps meet the States ambitious water requirements, but in the long term will result in decreased runoff and increased evapotranspiration from higher temperatures. In addition because of the young nature of the mountain ranges they are unstable with the result that the reservoirs and potential reservoir sites have very limited life expectances because of rapid siltation. It is also known, however these vast quantities of water is wasted by inefficient and poorly managed irrigation schemes. The water resources of the region are already overstretched and hence, in the foreseeable future the very existence of their agricultural economies is at stake.

To provide sustainable water management, it is important to obtain reliable information on the present and future water resources and their evolution in relation to human activities, to global changes and to climate evolution affecting the hydrological and melting regime of the main tributaries to the Amu Darya and Syr Darya.

The specific objectives of the project are therefore:

• to provide a precise basis for a safer allocation of water resources under changing hydrological conditions to minimise risk of further environmental degradation,

• to establish realistic estimates of the amount of water that might be expected from the upper catchment in the next 50 years,

• to improve the regional capabilities to forecast the annual available water resources for irrigation and drinking water supply in the lower parts of the Aral basin,

• to determine the actual volumes of usable water in the large upstream reservoirs,

• to develop improved reservoir operation and water management strategies to consider future decrease of available surface water resources in the allocation of transboundary water resources,

• to determine the minimum water requirements for the basins,

• to identify a sustainable water resource management strategy for the basin that will ensure equitable allocation to all riparian needs including the environmental needs.